KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

55%

43%

39%

34%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

ICONNO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.05u · ICON −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	47.6%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	24.1%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	5.6%	79.2%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	59.7%	18.9%	13.4%	—	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	11.7%	19.9%	11.3%	65.0%	19.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	16.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	76%	75.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	71.3°F	6.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	69.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	67.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗