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KICT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
45%
ICON
37%
HRES
16%
WN2
16%
AIFS
12%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 28.8¢Risks 28.80u
VS
AIFSNO 71.2¢Risks 71.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.20u · AIFS −71.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 37.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0012.2%45.4%16.3%16.4%37.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0012.2%45.4%16.3%16.4%37.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0012.2%45.4%16.3%16.4%37.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0012.2%45.4%16.3%16.4%37.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend52%69.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%67.5°F8.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON37%65.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES16%62.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%63.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single12%61.8°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261027-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗