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KICT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
45%
ICON
37%
HRES
16%
WN2
16%
AIFS
12%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 28.7¢Risks 28.75u
VS
AIFSNO 71.2¢Risks 71.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.25u · AIFS −71.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 70.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 62.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.5%———1.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.9%———38.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0011.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0025.2%———26.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0032.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:006.3%———29.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0070.3%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.4%———27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:006.4%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0033.0%———34.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0025.2%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0065.5%———35.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0018.6%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0022.0%———45.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0050.0%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0053.7%———51.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0043.5%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:007.0%———56.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0054.5%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0071.5%———48.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0025.8%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0034.6%—39.6%—61.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0036.5%—22.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0051.8%———62.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0057.4%—7.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0041.9%—33.0%—37.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0044.9%—20.7%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0062.8%—6.7%—45.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0011.9%—13.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:003.1%9.0%0.2%70.6%16.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.2%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend52%69.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%67.5°F8.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON37%65.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES16%62.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%63.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single12%61.8°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261027-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗