KIND / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

57%

40%

38%

36%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

HRESNO 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.50u · HRES −41.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:04+00:00	31.4%	88.4%	51.6%	62.4%	42.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:49+00:00	31.4%	88.4%	51.6%	62.4%	42.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:04+00:00	31.4%	88.4%	62.0%	62.4%	42.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	31.4%	88.4%	62.0%	62.4%	42.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	31.4%	88.4%	62.0%	62.4%	42.3%
2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:00	14.4%	88.4%	62.0%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	14.4%	88.4%	62.0%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	14.4%	88.4%	62.0%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	14.4%	88.4%	62.0%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T10:33:55+00:00	14.4%	88.4%	62.0%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T11:19:55+00:00	14.4%	83.0%	30.6%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	14.4%	83.0%	30.6%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	14.4%	83.0%	30.6%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00	33.8%	83.0%	30.6%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	33.2%	82.6%	30.6%	64.8%	42.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:59+00:00	57.3%	85.9%	58.7%	51.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	57.3%	85.9%	55.8%	51.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	57.3%	85.9%	55.8%	51.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	57.3%	85.9%	55.8%	51.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	57.3%	85.9%	55.8%	51.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:34+00:00	50.0%	85.9%	55.8%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	50.0%	85.9%	55.8%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	50.0%	85.9%	55.8%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	50.0%	85.9%	55.8%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	50.0%	78.6%	39.4%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	50.0%	78.6%	39.4%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	50.0%	78.6%	39.4%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	50.0%	78.6%	39.4%	39.7%	76.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	45.7%	78.6%	39.4%	39.7%	76.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	45.7%	81.1%	39.4%	39.7%	76.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:35+00:00	45.7%	81.1%	39.4%	39.7%	76.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	45.7%	81.1%	39.4%	39.7%	76.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	45.7%	81.1%	38.4%	39.7%	76.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	45.7%	81.1%	38.4%	39.7%	76.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	45.7%	81.1%	38.4%	39.7%	76.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	38.4%	39.7%	57.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:36+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	38.4%	39.7%	57.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	38.4%	39.7%	57.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	38.4%	39.7%	57.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	38.4%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:37+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	40.4%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	40.4%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	47.4%	81.1%	40.4%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	38.0%	81.1%	40.4%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00	38.0%	81.1%	40.4%	35.9%	57.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	61.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.6577
ICON	57%	59.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3295
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2070
WeatherNext 2	40%	57.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1632
AIFS Single	38%	57.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1444
IFS HRES	36%	56.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1289

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗