KIND / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

57%

40%

38%

36%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

HRESNO 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.50u · HRES −41.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	99.0%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	78.1%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	29.1%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	36.6%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	98.4%	72.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	13.0%	37.6%	51.4%	—	57.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	4.2%	66.3%	—	42.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	31.6%	4.2%	57.6%	—	40.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	57.1%	14.0%	26.8%	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	17.9%	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	73.5%	21.9%	53.3%	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	59.3%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	65.4%	29.1%	14.1%	—	32.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	53.6%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	43.6%	50.0%	15.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	33.5%	57.5%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	30.4%	57.7%	22.5%	—	17.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	25.7%	50.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	25.1%	40.8%	18.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	22.0%	30.7%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	23.0%	22.1%	8.5%	0.7%	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	23.1%	25.8%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	19.9%	23.3%	7.2%	—	12.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	13.9%	19.9%	7.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	11.8%	14.4%	5.5%	1.1%	9.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	7.7%	15.0%	3.7%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	6.1%	22.0%	5.0%	0.4%	6.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.8%	17.3%	5.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	4.4%	24.5%	2.1%	0.3%	3.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.9%	23.6%	1.8%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.0%	22.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	15.0%	1.3%	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	61.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.6577
ICON	57%	59.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3295
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2070
WeatherNext 2	40%	57.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1632
AIFS Single	38%	57.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1444
IFS HRES	36%	56.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1289

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗