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KIND / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
82%
HRES
50%
WN2
36%
ICON
35%
AIFS
20%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.95u
VS
AIFSNO 49.1¢Risks 49.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.05u · AIFS −49.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T22:27:35+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00AIFS Single: 19.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00AIFS Single: 19.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00AIFS Single: 19.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-10T22:27:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.0% · 2026-10-10T22:27:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.8% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.8% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.8% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.8% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.8% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.8% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-10T22:27:35+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00ICON: 34.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:35+00:00ICON: 34.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00ICON: 34.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00ICON: 34.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00ICON: 34.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00ICON: 34.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00ICON: 34.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 00:4310-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:35+00:0017.5%82.0%32.0%50.0%34.6%
2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:0017.5%82.0%35.8%50.0%34.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:0017.5%82.0%35.8%50.0%34.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:0017.5%82.0%35.8%50.0%34.6%
2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:0019.9%82.0%35.8%50.0%34.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:0019.9%82.0%35.8%50.0%34.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:0019.9%82.0%35.8%50.0%34.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble82%67.1°F7.2°F2026-10-10 00:000.6724
National Blend52%61.0°F8.9°F2026-10-10 06:000.2725
IFS HRES50%60.5°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.2500
WeatherNext 236%58.7°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.1282
ICON35%56.6°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.1197
AIFS Single20%55.8°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.0396

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261017-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗