KIND / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

50%

36%

35%

20%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.95u

AIFSNO 49.1¢Risks 49.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.05u · AIFS −49.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	98.0%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	68.1%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	19.3%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	25.2%	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	96.4%	60.0%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	6.9%	25.2%	37.6%	—	43.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	1.8%	52.2%	—	29.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	19.5%	1.8%	42.4%	—	26.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	41.3%	6.9%	15.4%	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	9.2%	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	58.3%	11.6%	36.9%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	42.4%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	48.2%	16.1%	6.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	35.9%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	26.6%	32.2%	7.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	18.4%	38.8%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	15.9%	38.5%	10.7%	—	7.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	12.4%	30.8%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	11.8%	22.7%	7.8%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	9.6%	15.0%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	9.9%	9.4%	2.8%	0.1%	4.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	9.7%	11.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	9.4%	2.1%	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	7.4%	1.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.5%	4.6%	1.3%	0.2%	2.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.9%	4.6%	0.8%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.3%	7.4%	1.0%	0.1%	1.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.2%	5.0%	1.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	7.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	7.0%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	6.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	3.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	67.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.6724
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.2725
IFS HRES	50%	60.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.2500
WeatherNext 2	36%	58.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1282
ICON	35%	56.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1197
AIFS Single	20%	55.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0396

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261017-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗