KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

61%

44%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.0¢Risks 37.05u

ICONNO 62.9¢Risks 62.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.95u · ICON −62.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:20+00:00	76.3%	60.7%	79.7%	66.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	76.3%	58.5%	79.7%	66.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00	76.3%	58.5%	75.8%	66.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	76.3%	58.5%	75.8%	66.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	76.3%	58.5%	75.8%	66.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	76.3%	58.5%	75.8%	66.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	75.8%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	75.8%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	75.8%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	75.8%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	78.5%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	78.5%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	78.5%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	75.1%	58.5%	78.5%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	76.9%	58.5%	78.5%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	76.9%	58.5%	78.5%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	76.9%	58.5%	78.5%	65.4%	70.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	69.1%	54.0%	54.3%	34.5%	55.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	69.1%	54.0%	54.3%	34.5%	55.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	69.1%	54.0%	53.2%	34.5%	55.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	69.1%	54.0%	53.2%	34.5%	55.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	69.1%	54.0%	53.2%	34.5%	55.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	61.0%	54.0%	53.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	61.0%	54.0%	53.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	61.0%	54.0%	53.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	61.0%	54.0%	53.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	61.0%	54.0%	53.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	61.0%	54.0%	55.9%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	61.0%	64.3%	55.9%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	61.0%	64.3%	55.9%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	71.3%	64.2%	55.9%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	71.3%	64.2%	55.9%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:13+00:00	71.3%	62.7%	55.9%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	71.3%	62.7%	55.9%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	71.3%	62.7%	58.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	71.3%	62.7%	58.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	71.3%	62.7%	58.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	71.3%	62.7%	58.2%	45.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	65.4%	62.7%	58.2%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	65.4%	62.7%	58.2%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	65.4%	62.7%	58.2%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	65.4%	62.7%	58.2%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	65.4%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	65.4%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	65.4%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	53.5%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	59.2%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	61.6%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	61.6%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	61.6%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	61.6%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	61.6%	62.7%	52.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	61.6%	65.4%	47.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	61.6%	65.4%	47.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	61.6%	65.4%	47.4%	48.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	65.3%	65.4%	47.4%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	65.3%	65.3%	47.4%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	65.3%	62.8%	47.4%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	65.3%	62.9%	47.4%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	65.3%	62.9%	47.4%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	65.3%	62.9%	51.3%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	65.3%	62.9%	51.3%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	65.3%	62.9%	51.3%	43.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	51.3%	43.2%	16.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	51.3%	43.2%	16.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	51.3%	43.2%	16.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	51.3%	43.2%	16.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	51.3%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:33+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	68.0%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	53.9%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	60.2%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	60.2%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	67.1%	62.9%	60.2%	49.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00	70.3%	62.9%	60.2%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	70.3%	62.9%	60.2%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	70.3%	62.9%	60.2%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	70.3%	62.9%	60.2%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	70.3%	62.9%	60.2%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	70.3%	68.4%	55.5%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	70.3%	68.4%	55.5%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	70.3%	68.4%	55.5%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	68.5%	68.4%	55.5%	52.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	68.5%	68.0%	55.5%	52.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	68.5%	66.7%	55.5%	52.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	68.5%	66.7%	55.5%	52.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	68.5%	66.7%	51.4%	52.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	68.5%	66.7%	51.4%	52.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	68.5%	66.7%	51.4%	52.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	68.5%	66.7%	51.4%	52.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	51.4%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	51.4%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	51.4%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	51.4%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	63.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	50.0%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	60.8%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	60.8%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	60.8%	43.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	62.9%	66.7%	60.8%	43.6%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	64.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1109
AIFS Single	63%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1376
WeatherNext 2	61%	64.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
ICON	7%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.8575

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗