KIND / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

61%

44%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.0¢Risks 37.05u

ICONNO 62.9¢Risks 62.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.95u · ICON −62.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	40.9%	18.9%	12.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	44.9%	47.8%	34.3%	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	51.5%	65.6%	54.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	64.1%	68.4%	38.2%	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.6%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	55.0%	73.5%	33.0%	—	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	34.2%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	46.5%	68.6%	33.8%	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	44.6%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	40.9%	63.6%	22.3%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	34.3%	59.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	38.5%	52.9%	17.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	39.1%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	34.0%	53.1%	36.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	30.7%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	28.2%	39.2%	31.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	18.3%	36.7%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	17.5%	51.2%	19.9%	—	32.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	16.7%	54.8%	25.3%	—	28.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	13.0%	62.3%	27.6%	8.5%	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	10.9%	62.7%	23.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	10.1%	66.9%	21.0%	8.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	13.2%	66.2%	19.1%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	18.2%	68.2%	19.1%	28.0%	22.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	16.2%	51.5%	13.6%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	12.5%	54.7%	11.0%	23.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.5%	63.0%	29.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	64.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1109
AIFS Single	63%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1376
WeatherNext 2	61%	64.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
ICON	7%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.8575

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗