KIND / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

50%

35%

27%

10%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

ICONNO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.50u · ICON −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00	72.8%	43.3%	64.2%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	72.8%	53.7%	64.2%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00	72.8%	53.7%	64.2%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	64.2%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	64.1%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:21+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	64.1%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	57.8%	50.9%	64.1%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00	57.8%	50.9%	66.4%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	57.8%	50.9%	66.4%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	57.8%	50.9%	66.4%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	57.8%	50.9%	66.4%	48.1%	25.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	66.4%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	66.4%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	66.4%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	66.4%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	61.1%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	61.1%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	61.1%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	53.5%	50.9%	61.1%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	59.8%	50.9%	61.1%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	59.8%	50.9%	61.1%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	59.8%	50.9%	61.1%	45.6%	56.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	72.0%	34.9%	57.7%	30.2%	51.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	72.0%	34.9%	57.7%	30.2%	51.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	72.0%	34.9%	58.7%	30.2%	51.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	72.0%	34.9%	58.7%	30.2%	51.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	72.0%	34.9%	58.7%	30.2%	51.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	72.1%	34.9%	58.7%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	72.1%	34.9%	58.7%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	72.1%	34.9%	58.7%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	72.1%	34.9%	58.7%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	72.1%	34.9%	58.7%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	72.1%	34.9%	61.6%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	72.1%	38.8%	61.6%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	72.1%	38.8%	61.6%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	80.8%	38.8%	61.6%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	80.8%	38.8%	61.6%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	72.8%	32.2%	54.7%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	72.8%	32.1%	54.7%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	72.8%	32.1%	54.7%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	72.8%	32.1%	60.5%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	72.8%	32.1%	60.5%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	72.8%	32.1%	60.5%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	60.5%	23.0%	23.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	60.5%	23.0%	23.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	60.5%	23.0%	23.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	60.5%	23.0%	23.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	60.5%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	63.9%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	63.9%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	76.6%	32.1%	63.9%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	77.3%	32.1%	63.9%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	77.3%	32.1%	63.9%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	77.3%	32.1%	63.9%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	77.3%	32.1%	63.9%	36.9%	23.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	71.4%	39.6%	51.3%	24.7%	8.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	71.4%	39.6%	62.6%	24.7%	8.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	71.4%	39.6%	62.6%	24.7%	8.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	71.4%	39.6%	62.6%	24.7%	8.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	71.4%	39.6%	62.6%	24.7%	8.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	71.2%	39.6%	62.6%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	71.2%	39.6%	62.6%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	71.2%	39.6%	62.6%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	71.2%	39.6%	62.6%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	71.2%	34.4%	50.0%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	71.2%	34.4%	50.0%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	71.2%	34.4%	50.0%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	71.2%	34.4%	50.0%	26.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	64.8%	34.7%	50.0%	26.8%	10.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	68.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	67.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	66.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗