KIND / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

50%

35%

27%

10%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

ICONNO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.50u · ICON −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	3.0%	63.9%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	31.1%	61.1%	4.0%	—	35.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	51.5%	65.0%	40.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	31.6%	46.9%	23.4%	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	33.0%	33.0%	26.1%	—	19.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	0.1%	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	30.8%	49.2%	24.5%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	11.1%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	30.7%	46.5%	22.1%	—	20.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	27.9%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	25.1%	42.7%	16.0%	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	26.1%	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	18.3%	37.6%	18.3%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	20.4%	37.2%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	17.6%	43.9%	10.8%	—	22.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	14.4%	45.8%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	9.4%	48.9%	6.2%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	11.2%	51.1%	0.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	9.4%	53.5%	3.5%	14.0%	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	11.9%	53.6%	2.9%	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	58.7%	2.8%	0.0%	11.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	9.8%	48.7%	1.9%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	7.9%	48.7%	0.9%	26.2%	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	15.6%	47.2%	1.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	28.0%	48.5%	2.5%	42.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	68.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	67.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	66.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗