KIND / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

45%

45%

36%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.0¢Risks 40.00u

EPSNO 60.0¢Risks 60.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.00u · EPS −60.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:00+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	45.2%	33.5%	48.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	54.8%	33.5%	48.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	54.8%	33.5%	48.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	54.8%	33.5%	48.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	45.7%	32.9%	54.8%	33.5%	48.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00	61.1%	32.9%	54.8%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	61.1%	32.9%	54.8%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	61.1%	32.9%	54.8%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	61.1%	32.9%	54.8%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	61.1%	18.2%	53.5%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	61.1%	18.2%	53.5%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	61.1%	18.2%	53.5%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	61.1%	18.2%	53.5%	41.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	53.8%	18.2%	53.5%	41.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	53.8%	19.7%	53.5%	41.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:35+00:00	53.8%	19.7%	53.5%	41.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	53.8%	19.7%	53.5%	41.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	53.8%	19.7%	52.6%	41.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	53.8%	19.7%	52.6%	41.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	53.8%	19.7%	52.6%	41.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	52.6%	41.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:36+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	52.6%	41.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	52.6%	41.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	52.6%	41.6%	44.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	52.6%	36.3%	44.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:37+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	60.3%	36.3%	44.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	60.3%	36.3%	44.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	64.0%	19.7%	60.3%	36.3%	44.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	44.7%	19.7%	60.3%	36.3%	44.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00	44.7%	19.7%	60.3%	36.3%	44.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	71.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3636
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
ICON	45%	69.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2016
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1998
AIFS Single	45%	69.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1998
IFS HRES	36%	68.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1318
IFS Ensemble	20%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0388

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗