KIND / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

45%

45%

36%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.0¢Risks 40.00u

EPSNO 60.0¢Risks 60.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.00u · EPS −60.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	1.3%	50.7%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	19.9%	47.2%	1.8%	—	23.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	37.1%	50.7%	27.2%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	19.5%	32.3%	13.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	20.1%	20.1%	14.9%	—	10.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.0%	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	17.8%	33.0%	13.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	4.9%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	17.2%	29.9%	11.3%	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	15.0%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	12.9%	25.9%	7.3%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	13.2%	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	8.2%	21.0%	8.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	9.2%	20.4%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	7.4%	25.1%	4.0%	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	5.5%	26.2%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	3.1%	28.2%	1.9%	0.0%	7.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	3.8%	29.6%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	2.9%	31.0%	0.8%	4.8%	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	3.7%	30.4%	0.6%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	5.2%	34.2%	0.6%	0.0%	3.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	2.6%	24.8%	0.3%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	1.9%	24.0%	0.1%	9.5%	1.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	4.3%	22.1%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	9.5%	22.2%	0.4%	18.2%	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	10.5%	26.0%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	6.6%	22.6%	0.1%	19.2%	1.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	26.7%	1.0%	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	71.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3636
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
ICON	45%	69.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2016
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1998
AIFS Single	45%	69.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1998
IFS HRES	36%	68.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1318
IFS Ensemble	20%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0388

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗