KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

84%

62%

59%

58%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

HRESNO 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.75u · HRES −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:13+00:00	90.1%	62.1%	82.9%	45.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	90.1%	62.1%	82.9%	45.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	90.1%	62.1%	87.4%	45.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	90.1%	62.1%	87.4%	45.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	90.1%	62.1%	87.4%	45.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	90.1%	62.1%	87.4%	45.9%	71.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	92.3%	62.1%	87.4%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	92.3%	62.1%	87.4%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	92.3%	62.1%	87.4%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	92.3%	62.1%	87.4%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	92.3%	62.1%	84.1%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	92.4%	62.1%	84.1%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	92.4%	62.1%	84.1%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	88.3%	62.1%	84.1%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	88.3%	62.1%	84.1%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	88.3%	62.1%	84.1%	58.2%	59.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	88.3%	62.1%	84.1%	58.2%	59.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	69.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗