KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

84%

62%

59%

58%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

HRESNO 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.75u · HRES −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	29.1%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	66.4%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	5.4%	49.3%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	65.1%	11.2%	5.4%	—	57.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	73.4%	60.1%	33.0%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	55.3%	73.0%	27.7%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	55.6%	62.5%	26.8%	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	1.4%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	39.3%	63.9%	25.8%	—	45.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	28.1%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	42.2%	57.0%	17.2%	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	44.6%	46.4%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	44.5%	59.1%	14.9%	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	42.5%	61.2%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	35.7%	65.2%	18.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	30.8%	65.6%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	29.4%	64.1%	14.5%	0.0%	29.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	35.5%	66.5%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	38.2%	66.9%	14.9%	—	32.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	35.7%	65.4%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	36.3%	58.1%	15.3%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	48.8%	66.4%	16.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	65.8%	74.4%	15.9%	72.4%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	62.7%	75.2%	12.8%	—	29.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	55.4%	73.9%	11.3%	71.6%	34.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	68.8%	80.9%	22.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	68.2%	82.8%	30.5%	86.2%	51.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	85.6%	21.3%	—	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	69.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗