KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

78%

38%

33%

20%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

ICONNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.50u · ICON −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	79.3%	28.4%	76.1%	51.8%	76.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	79.3%	28.4%	76.1%	51.8%	76.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	79.3%	28.4%	76.1%	51.8%	76.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	79.3%	28.4%	69.7%	51.8%	76.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	79.3%	28.4%	69.7%	51.8%	76.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	79.3%	28.4%	69.7%	51.8%	76.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	69.7%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	69.7%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	69.7%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	69.7%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	69.7%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	71.7%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	67.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	63.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	63.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	75.4%	28.4%	63.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	84.3%	28.4%	63.4%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	84.3%	28.4%	63.4%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	84.3%	28.4%	63.4%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	84.3%	28.4%	63.4%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	84.3%	28.4%	63.4%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	84.3%	28.4%	67.8%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	84.3%	32.2%	67.8%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	84.3%	32.2%	67.8%	32.6%	58.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	81.2%	32.2%	67.8%	32.6%	59.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	81.2%	32.2%	67.8%	32.6%	59.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00	86.3%	28.8%	70.5%	41.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	86.3%	28.8%	71.4%	41.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	86.3%	28.8%	71.4%	41.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	86.3%	28.8%	71.4%	41.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	71.4%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	71.4%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	71.4%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	71.4%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	71.4%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	86.9%	37.4%	73.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	86.9%	37.4%	73.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	86.9%	37.4%	73.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	83.1%	37.4%	73.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	83.1%	37.8%	73.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	83.1%	36.1%	73.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	83.1%	36.1%	73.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	83.1%	36.1%	74.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	83.1%	36.1%	74.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	83.1%	36.1%	74.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	83.1%	36.1%	74.3%	37.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	79.3%	36.1%	74.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	79.3%	36.1%	74.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	79.3%	36.1%	74.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	79.3%	36.1%	74.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	79.3%	36.1%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	79.3%	36.0%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	79.3%	36.0%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	79.3%	36.0%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	69.3%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	77.1%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	77.1%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	77.1%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	78.7%	36.0%	77.1%	29.6%	19.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	79.2%	36.0%	77.1%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	79.2%	36.0%	77.1%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	79.2%	36.0%	77.1%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	79.2%	36.0%	77.1%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	79.2%	31.7%	69.7%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	79.2%	31.7%	69.7%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	79.2%	31.7%	69.7%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	79.2%	31.7%	69.7%	32.2%	16.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	77.0%	32.0%	69.7%	32.2%	17.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	77.0%	32.0%	69.7%	32.2%	17.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	77.0%	26.3%	69.7%	32.2%	17.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	77.0%	26.3%	69.7%	32.2%	17.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	77.0%	26.3%	66.3%	32.2%	17.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	77.0%	26.3%	66.3%	32.2%	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	77.0%	26.3%	66.3%	32.2%	17.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	66.3%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	66.3%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	66.3%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	66.3%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	66.3%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	77.7%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	65.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	74.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	74.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	79.9%	26.3%	74.1%	28.7%	16.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	82.0%	26.3%	74.1%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	82.0%	26.3%	74.1%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	82.0%	26.3%	74.1%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	82.0%	26.3%	74.1%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	82.0%	26.3%	74.1%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	82.0%	37.1%	74.3%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	82.0%	37.1%	74.3%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	82.0%	37.1%	74.3%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	76.1%	37.1%	74.3%	36.3%	28.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	76.2%	37.1%	74.3%	36.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	76.2%	38.2%	74.3%	36.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	76.2%	38.2%	74.3%	36.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	76.2%	38.2%	74.3%	36.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	76.2%	38.2%	60.8%	36.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	76.2%	38.2%	60.8%	36.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	76.2%	38.2%	60.8%	36.3%	29.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	60.8%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	60.8%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	60.8%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	60.8%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	60.8%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	78.5%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	66.0%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	78.5%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	78.5%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	83.3%	38.2%	78.5%	33.3%	21.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	86.6%	38.2%	78.5%	33.3%	20.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	86.6%	38.2%	78.5%	33.3%	20.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	86.6%	38.2%	78.5%	33.3%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	86.6%	38.2%	78.5%	33.3%	20.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	73.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	69.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗