KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

78%

38%

33%

20%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

ICONNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.50u · ICON −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	19.3%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	53.9%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	2.6%	36.1%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	51.4%	5.8%	2.5%	—	43.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	60.1%	45.6%	21.0%	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	40.2%	59.1%	16.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	39.7%	46.8%	15.4%	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	0.5%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	24.5%	47.5%	14.3%	—	29.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	15.7%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	26.2%	39.6%	8.3%	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	27.9%	29.4%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	27.4%	40.9%	6.6%	—	26.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	25.3%	42.5%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	19.7%	46.1%	8.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	15.8%	46.0%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	14.5%	43.9%	5.8%	0.0%	14.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	18.3%	45.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	19.8%	45.6%	5.6%	—	15.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	17.5%	43.3%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	17.5%	35.2%	5.4%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	26.3%	42.8%	5.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	41.3%	51.2%	5.2%	48.8%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	37.3%	51.3%	3.7%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	29.5%	48.7%	3.0%	46.0%	14.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	41.7%	56.9%	7.1%	—	20.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	40.0%	58.6%	10.8%	64.2%	24.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	61.9%	6.0%	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	73.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	69.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗