KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.8¢Risks 16.75u

EPSNO 83.2¢Risks 83.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.25u · EPS −83.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:36+00:00	58.5%	11.1%	34.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	58.5%	11.1%	34.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	58.5%	11.1%	34.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	58.5%	11.1%	34.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	58.5%	4.4%	33.6%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	58.5%	4.4%	33.6%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	58.5%	4.4%	33.6%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	58.5%	4.4%	33.6%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	50.7%	4.4%	33.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	50.7%	5.1%	33.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:35+00:00	50.7%	5.1%	33.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	50.7%	5.1%	33.7%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	50.7%	5.1%	31.5%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	50.7%	5.1%	31.5%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	50.7%	5.1%	31.5%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	31.5%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:36+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	31.5%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	31.5%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	31.5%	30.7%	44.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	31.5%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:37+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	57.8%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	46.5%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	47.7%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	47.7%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	47.7%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	47.7%	5.1%	38.9%	26.9%	44.4%
2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:00	47.7%	5.1%	38.9%	19.2%	44.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	47.7%	0.8%	27.8%	19.2%	44.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	47.7%	0.8%	27.8%	19.2%	44.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	47.7%	0.8%	27.8%	19.2%	44.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	37.4%	0.8%	27.8%	19.2%	44.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	38.3%	0.8%	28.1%	19.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	38.3%	0.9%	28.1%	19.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	38.3%	0.9%	28.1%	19.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	38.3%	0.9%	28.1%	19.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	38.3%	0.9%	22.0%	19.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	38.3%	0.9%	22.0%	19.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	38.3%	0.9%	22.0%	19.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	22.0%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	22.0%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	22.0%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	22.0%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	22.0%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	29.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	20.2%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	17.3%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	17.3%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	33.5%	0.9%	17.3%	8.3%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	42.0%	0.9%	17.3%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	42.0%	0.9%	17.3%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	42.0%	0.9%	17.3%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	42.0%	0.9%	17.3%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	42.0%	0.9%	17.3%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	42.0%	0.9%	15.9%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	42.0%	0.3%	15.9%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	42.0%	0.3%	15.9%	6.8%	21.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	15.9%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	15.9%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:14+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	15.9%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	15.9%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	21.1%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	21.1%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	21.1%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	37.4%	0.3%	21.1%	6.8%	22.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	42.8%	0.3%	21.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	42.8%	0.3%	21.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	42.8%	0.3%	21.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	42.8%	0.3%	21.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	42.8%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	42.8%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	42.8%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	17.1%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	13.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	37.2%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	37.2%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	37.2%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	37.2%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	37.2%	0.3%	14.8%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	37.2%	0.2%	12.9%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	37.2%	0.2%	12.9%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	37.2%	0.2%	12.9%	12.0%	6.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	12.9%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	12.9%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	12.9%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	12.9%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	12.9%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	11.8%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	11.8%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	38.0%	0.2%	11.8%	4.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	11.8%	4.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	11.8%	4.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	11.8%	4.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	11.8%	4.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	11.8%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	39.7%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.1%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.7%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.7%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	41.4%	0.2%	14.7%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	39.0%	0.7%	12.4%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	39.0%	0.7%	12.4%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	39.0%	0.7%	12.4%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	32.9%	0.7%	12.4%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	32.9%	0.9%	12.4%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	32.9%	0.6%	12.4%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	32.9%	0.6%	12.4%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	32.9%	0.6%	13.0%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	32.9%	0.6%	13.0%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	32.9%	0.6%	13.0%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	32.9%	0.6%	13.0%	4.9%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	33%	74.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	72.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	69.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	67.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗