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KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
86%
WN2
67%
HRES
41%
EPS
36%
ICON
33%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 59.3¢Risks 59.30u
VS
ICONNO 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.70u · ICON −40.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:0010-14 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:0085.7%35.6%67.2%41.3%32.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single86%79.5°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 267%75.9°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
National Blend55%74.0°F4.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES41%72.1°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble36%72.1°F3.8°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON33%69.1°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗