KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

67%

41%

36%

33%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.3¢Risks 59.30u

ICONNO 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.70u · ICON −40.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	5.0%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	9.3%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	4.2%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	6.6%	23.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	23.0%	31.7%	1.3%	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	37.1%	23.2%	5.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	27.7%	26.4%	10.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	18.4%	23.0%	10.0%	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.3%	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	11.6%	21.9%	6.3%	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	3.9%	22.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	5.7%	20.8%	4.3%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	3.1%	24.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	22.3%	1.8%	—	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	3.2%	21.7%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	1.6%	21.8%	1.2%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	3.0%	24.9%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	3.4%	19.7%	0.8%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	12.1%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	19.0%	25.5%	0.9%	—	8.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	18.3%	26.7%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	11.6%	26.0%	1.4%	0.0%	5.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	19.9%	31.4%	1.9%	—	7.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	18.2%	30.9%	2.6%	34.2%	10.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	31.4%	1.5%	—	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	79.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	75.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	72.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	72.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	69.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗