KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

54%

45%

25%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.7¢Risks 56.70u

ICONNO 43.3¢Risks 43.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.30u · ICON −43.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00	63.6%	29.7%	67.6%	26.8%	21.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	63.6%	29.7%	72.2%	26.8%	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	63.6%	29.7%	72.2%	26.8%	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	63.6%	29.7%	72.2%	26.8%	21.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	72.1%	29.7%	72.2%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	72.1%	29.7%	72.2%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	72.1%	29.7%	72.2%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	72.1%	29.7%	72.2%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	72.1%	29.7%	72.2%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	72.1%	41.1%	81.3%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	72.1%	41.1%	81.3%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	72.1%	41.1%	81.3%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	72.9%	41.1%	81.3%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	72.9%	41.1%	81.4%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	72.9%	42.4%	81.4%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	72.9%	42.4%	81.4%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	72.9%	42.4%	81.4%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	72.9%	42.4%	72.4%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	72.9%	42.4%	72.4%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	72.9%	42.4%	72.4%	36.8%	36.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	72.4%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	72.4%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	72.4%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	72.4%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	72.4%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	78.0%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	87.1%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	87.1%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	87.1%	40.3%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	86.7%	42.4%	87.1%	40.3%	24.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	86.7%	42.4%	87.1%	40.3%	24.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	86.7%	42.4%	87.1%	40.3%	24.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	86.7%	42.4%	87.1%	40.3%	24.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	86.7%	53.6%	88.4%	45.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	86.7%	53.6%	88.4%	45.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	86.7%	53.6%	88.4%	45.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	86.7%	53.6%	88.4%	45.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	86.7%	53.6%	88.4%	45.1%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	75.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	68.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗