KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

54%

45%

25%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.7¢Risks 56.70u

ICONNO 43.3¢Risks 43.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.30u · ICON −43.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	18.1%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	53.2%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	11.8%	41.9%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	60.4%	57.0%	8.5%	—	51.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	27.2%	56.6%	6.4%	—	34.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	23.4%	64.2%	30.3%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	17.9%	64.8%	23.6%	—	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	0.1%	63.6%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	4.9%	49.2%	10.1%	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	5.1%	52.6%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	10.1%	54.4%	9.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	12.1%	70.6%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	10.2%	54.6%	4.6%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	21.0%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	30.4%	61.5%	10.7%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	24.9%	66.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	23.5%	65.1%	5.5%	—	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	37.5%	73.8%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	27.3%	71.8%	10.9%	62.9%	32.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	66.4%	0.0%	—	19.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	75.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	68.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗