KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

70%

47%

44%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.90u · EPS −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	94.1%	59.4%	85.0%	35.8%	36.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	94.1%	44.8%	85.0%	35.8%	36.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	94.1%	44.8%	85.0%	35.8%	36.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	92.5%	44.8%	84.7%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	92.5%	44.8%	84.7%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00	92.5%	43.9%	84.7%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	92.5%	43.9%	84.7%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	92.5%	43.9%	86.9%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	92.5%	43.9%	86.9%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	92.5%	43.9%	86.9%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	92.5%	43.9%	86.9%	36.0%	36.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	93.0%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	93.0%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	93.0%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	93.0%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	93.0%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	92.9%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	92.9%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	88.3%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	88.3%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	88.3%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	88.3%	43.9%	86.9%	46.9%	69.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	78.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	77.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	76.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	71.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗