KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

70%

47%

44%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.90u · EPS −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	14.2%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	8.8%	35.5%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	53.5%	50.0%	6.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	21.5%	49.3%	4.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	17.9%	56.8%	23.9%	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	13.1%	57.1%	17.9%	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	0.0%	55.7%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	3.1%	40.9%	6.9%	—	15.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	3.3%	44.0%	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	6.8%	45.6%	6.2%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	8.1%	62.4%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	6.6%	45.4%	2.8%	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	14.8%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	22.5%	51.9%	6.8%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	17.7%	57.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	16.3%	55.1%	3.2%	—	17.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	27.9%	64.5%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	19.0%	61.8%	6.6%	52.2%	23.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	55.6%	0.0%	—	12.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	78.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	77.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	76.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	71.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗