KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

20%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.6¢Risks 13.55u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.45u · EPS −86.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	32.1%	3.1%	39.4%	13.1%	9.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	32.1%	3.1%	39.4%	13.1%	9.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	32.1%	3.1%	32.2%	13.1%	9.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	32.1%	3.1%	32.2%	13.1%	9.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	32.1%	3.1%	32.2%	13.1%	9.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	32.1%	3.1%	32.2%	13.1%	9.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	32.2%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	32.2%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	32.2%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	32.2%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	19.7%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	19.7%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	19.7%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	21.5%	3.1%	19.7%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	24.0%	3.1%	19.7%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	24.0%	3.1%	19.7%	7.1%	3.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	24.0%	3.1%	19.7%	7.1%	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	65.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	70.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗