KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

20%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.6¢Risks 13.55u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.45u · EPS −86.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	18.5%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	1.4%	11.1%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	21.4%	18.9%	0.8%	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	4.4%	17.5%	0.4%	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	3.0%	21.6%	4.8%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	1.7%	20.6%	2.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	0.0%	18.9%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	10.1%	0.6%	—	2.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	11.1%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.5%	11.3%	0.4%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.6%	20.9%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.4%	10.2%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.3%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.4%	12.1%	0.3%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.5%	14.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.2%	12.3%	0.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	16.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	1.2%	14.3%	0.2%	9.4%	1.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	10.2%	0.0%	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	65.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	70.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗