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KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
96%
EPS
79%
ICON
50%
HRES
48%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 72.8¢Risks 72.85u
VS
HRESNO 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.15u · HRES −27.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00AIFS Single: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 96.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:0093.1%73.3%92.7%28.1%51.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:0093.1%73.3%92.7%28.1%51.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0093.1%73.3%96.0%28.1%51.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0093.1%73.3%96.0%28.1%51.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0093.1%73.3%96.0%28.1%51.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:0096.3%73.3%96.0%28.1%50.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0096.3%73.3%96.0%28.1%50.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0096.3%73.3%96.0%28.1%50.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0096.3%73.3%96.0%28.1%50.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:0096.3%78.9%97.5%48.2%50.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0096.3%78.9%97.5%48.2%50.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0096.3%78.9%97.5%48.2%50.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0096.3%78.9%97.5%48.2%50.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%74.1°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single96%75.1°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble79%70.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON50%67.5°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES48%67.3°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend46%67.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗