KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

79%

50%

48%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

HRESNO 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.15u · HRES −27.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	28.0%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	37.8%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	8.5%	77.2%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	41.6%	88.1%	39.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	19.9%	82.5%	45.6%	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	9.7%	78.9%	17.9%	—	35.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	75.9%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	28.1%	78.8%	14.5%	—	36.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	0.5%	80.5%	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	27.2%	81.0%	17.3%	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	27.4%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	45.6%	79.8%	22.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	35.1%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	36.4%	83.4%	23.7%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	53.8%	85.7%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	43.2%	84.7%	38.5%	80.3%	40.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	83.0%	—	—	26.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	75.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	70.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	50%	67.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	67.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗