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KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
84%
EPS
61%
ICON
52%
HRES
32%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u
VS
HRESNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · HRES −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00AIFS Single: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:0082.9%52.7%86.3%33.3%42.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0082.9%52.7%90.1%33.3%42.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0082.9%52.7%90.1%33.3%42.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0082.9%52.7%90.1%33.3%42.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:0086.7%52.7%90.1%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0086.7%52.7%90.1%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0086.7%52.7%90.1%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0086.7%52.7%90.1%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:0086.7%52.7%90.1%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:0086.7%60.9%94.0%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:0086.7%60.9%94.0%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0086.7%60.9%94.0%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:0084.2%60.9%94.0%32.3%51.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0084.2%60.9%94.1%32.3%51.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%74.3°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%73.1°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend67%70.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble61%69.3°F2.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON52%68.7°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES32%66.2°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗