KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

84%

61%

52%

32%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

HRESNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · HRES −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	23.0%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	31.8%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	6.2%	71.8%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	34.9%	84.2%	33.0%	—	60.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	77.4%	38.5%	—	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	6.8%	73.0%	13.4%	—	28.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	69.5%	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	21.8%	72.6%	10.4%	—	29.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	0.3%	74.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	20.7%	74.9%	12.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	20.8%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	37.1%	73.1%	16.7%	—	26.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	27.1%	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	28.2%	77.0%	17.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	44.3%	79.7%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	33.9%	78.2%	29.6%	72.9%	31.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	75.9%	—	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	73.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	69.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	68.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	66.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗