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KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
96%
ICON
80%
EPS
69%
HRES
67%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 83.0¢Risks 83.00u
VS
HRESNO 17.0¢Risks 17.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.00u · HRES −17.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 80.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:0092.2%61.7%98.2%26.1%61.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:0092.2%61.7%98.2%26.1%61.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0092.2%61.7%98.3%26.1%61.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0092.2%61.7%98.3%26.1%61.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0092.2%61.7%98.3%26.1%61.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:0096.2%61.7%98.3%26.1%80.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0096.2%61.7%98.3%26.1%80.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0096.2%61.7%98.3%26.1%80.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0096.2%61.7%98.3%26.1%80.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:0096.2%68.6%99.0%67.0%80.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0096.2%68.6%99.0%67.0%80.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0096.2%68.6%99.0%67.0%80.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0096.2%68.6%99.0%67.0%80.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:0096.2%68.6%99.0%67.0%80.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%76.1°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single96%75.6°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON80%71.6°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble69%69.6°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES67%69.7°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend53%68.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗