KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

96%

80%

69%

67%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.0¢Risks 83.00u

HRESNO 17.0¢Risks 17.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.00u · HRES −17.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	79.8%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	1.6%	75.1%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	12.2%	81.6%	9.6%	—	38.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	40.6%	85.6%	26.6%	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	35.1%	84.5%	62.7%	—	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	53.2%	81.1%	39.7%	—	45.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	0.6%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	42.5%	85.7%	45.8%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	53.4%	85.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	70.1%	83.3%	46.5%	67.0%	53.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	90.4%	—	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	75.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	71.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	69.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	69.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗