KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

43%

19%

19%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

EPSNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.00u · EPS −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	41.1%	11.0%	61.6%	15.3%	6.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	41.1%	11.0%	61.6%	15.3%	6.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	41.1%	11.0%	61.6%	15.3%	6.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	54.8%	11.0%	61.6%	15.3%	6.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	54.8%	11.0%	61.5%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	54.8%	10.6%	61.5%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	54.8%	10.6%	61.5%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	54.8%	10.6%	57.8%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	54.8%	10.6%	57.8%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	54.8%	10.6%	57.8%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	54.8%	10.6%	57.8%	15.3%	6.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	57.8%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	57.8%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	57.8%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	57.8%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	43.0%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	43.0%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	43.0%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	43.0%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	51.4%	10.6%	43.0%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	51.4%	10.6%	43.0%	19.3%	18.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	51.4%	10.6%	43.0%	19.3%	18.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	73.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	68.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	65.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗