KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

43%

19%

19%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

EPSNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.00u · EPS −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	37.8%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	0.0%	30.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	0.8%	36.9%	0.6%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	6.4%	41.3%	2.8%	—	6.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	4.2%	37.2%	15.5%	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	9.3%	30.1%	4.9%	—	6.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.0%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	4.9%	34.5%	5.8%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	7.8%	32.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	15.6%	28.4%	5.2%	13.6%	7.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	39.3%	—	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	73.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	68.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	65.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗