KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

51%

21%

12%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.5¢Risks 32.55u

EPSNO 67.5¢Risks 67.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.45u · EPS −67.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	34.5%	13.7%	65.0%	12.0%	5.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	34.5%	13.7%	65.0%	12.0%	5.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	34.5%	13.7%	65.0%	12.0%	5.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	34.5%	13.7%	65.0%	12.0%	5.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	34.5%	13.7%	65.0%	12.0%	5.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	44.5%	7.0%	35.5%	15.3%	16.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	44.5%	7.0%	45.3%	15.3%	16.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	44.5%	7.0%	45.3%	15.3%	16.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	44.5%	7.0%	45.3%	15.3%	16.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	44.5%	7.0%	45.3%	15.3%	16.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	40.5%	7.0%	45.3%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	40.5%	7.0%	45.3%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	40.5%	7.0%	45.3%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	40.5%	7.0%	45.3%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	39.1%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	39.1%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	39.1%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	40.5%	2.9%	39.1%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	39.1%	3.0%	39.0%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	39.1%	3.0%	39.0%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	39.1%	2.0%	39.0%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	39.1%	2.0%	39.0%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	39.1%	2.0%	36.6%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	39.1%	2.0%	36.6%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	39.1%	2.0%	36.6%	4.9%	21.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	36.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	36.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	36.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	36.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	36.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	46.6%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	51.7%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	51.7%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	41.2%	2.0%	51.7%	12.8%	18.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	46.8%	2.0%	51.7%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	46.8%	2.0%	51.7%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	46.8%	2.0%	51.7%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	46.8%	2.0%	51.7%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	46.8%	2.0%	51.7%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	46.8%	7.7%	66.0%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	46.8%	7.7%	66.0%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	46.8%	7.7%	66.0%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	66.0%	6.9%	21.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	33.5%	7.7%	66.0%	6.8%	21.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00	33.5%	8.0%	66.0%	6.8%	21.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	33.5%	8.0%	66.0%	6.8%	21.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	33.5%	8.0%	66.0%	6.8%	21.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	33.5%	8.0%	51.9%	6.8%	21.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	33.5%	8.0%	51.9%	6.8%	21.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	33.5%	8.0%	51.9%	6.8%	21.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	51.9%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	51.9%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	51.9%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	51.9%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	51.9%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	35.8%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	55.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	56.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	56.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	42.0%	8.0%	56.8%	2.1%	15.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	50.9%	8.0%	56.8%	2.1%	21.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	50.9%	8.0%	56.8%	2.1%	21.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	50.9%	8.0%	56.8%	2.1%	21.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	50.9%	8.0%	56.8%	2.1%	21.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	50.9%	8.7%	56.4%	12.3%	21.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	50.9%	8.7%	56.4%	12.3%	21.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	50.9%	8.7%	56.4%	12.3%	21.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	50.9%	8.7%	56.4%	12.3%	21.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	50.9%	8.7%	56.4%	12.3%	21.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	75.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	71.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	68.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	69.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗