KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

51%

21%

12%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.5¢Risks 32.55u

EPSNO 67.5¢Risks 67.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.45u · EPS −67.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	31.8%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	24.9%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.5%	30.5%	0.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	4.4%	34.3%	1.8%	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	2.8%	30.3%	11.4%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	6.4%	23.6%	3.1%	—	4.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	3.1%	27.2%	3.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	5.1%	25.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	10.9%	21.4%	3.2%	9.4%	4.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	31.0%	—	—	2.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	75.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	71.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	68.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	69.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗