WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
96%
ICON
82%
EPS
80%
HRES
78%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 88.5¢Risks 88.45u
VS
HRESNO 11.5¢Risks 11.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.55u · HRES −11.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 70.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:0088.2%46.4%97.2%51.2%70.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:0088.2%46.4%97.2%51.2%70.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0088.2%46.4%97.3%51.2%70.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0088.2%46.4%97.3%51.2%70.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0088.2%46.4%97.3%51.2%70.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:0095.5%46.4%97.3%51.2%81.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0095.5%46.4%97.3%51.2%81.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0095.5%46.4%97.3%51.2%81.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0095.5%46.4%97.3%51.2%81.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:0095.5%79.9%98.7%78.2%81.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0095.5%79.9%98.7%78.2%81.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0095.5%79.9%98.7%78.2%81.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0095.5%79.9%98.7%78.2%81.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%79.7°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single96%78.9°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON82%76.0°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble80%73.6°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES78%75.0°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend55%71.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%71.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗