KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

96%

82%

80%

78%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.5¢Risks 88.50u

HRESNO 11.5¢Risks 11.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.50u · HRES −11.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	53.6%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	78.3%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	0.8%	22.3%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	31.1%	79.1%	9.3%	—	45.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	64.3%	60.8%	26.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	52.3%	70.4%	36.5%	—	39.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	71.2%	79.4%	46.0%	71.2%	67.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	74.4%	—	—	55.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	79.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	78.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	76.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	73.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗