KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

79%

60%

39%

30%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

EPSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.70u · EPS −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	71.1%	28.4%	75.3%	26.8%	12.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	71.1%	28.4%	75.3%	26.8%	12.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	71.1%	28.4%	75.3%	26.8%	12.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	71.1%	28.4%	75.3%	26.8%	12.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	78.3%	28.4%	75.3%	26.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	78.3%	28.4%	75.3%	26.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	78.3%	24.8%	75.3%	26.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	78.3%	24.8%	75.3%	26.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	78.3%	24.8%	78.3%	26.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	78.3%	24.8%	78.3%	26.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	78.3%	24.8%	78.3%	26.8%	12.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	78.3%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	78.3%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	78.3%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	78.3%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	78.3%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	74.6%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.6%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.1%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.1%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	76.7%	24.8%	84.1%	43.8%	49.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	80.8%	24.8%	84.1%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	80.8%	24.8%	84.1%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	80.8%	24.8%	84.1%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	80.8%	24.8%	84.1%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	80.8%	24.8%	84.1%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	80.8%	28.8%	93.0%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	80.8%	28.8%	93.0%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	80.8%	28.8%	93.0%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	69.1%	28.8%	93.0%	43.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	69.1%	28.8%	93.0%	43.4%	69.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00	69.1%	29.6%	93.0%	43.4%	69.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	69.1%	29.6%	93.0%	43.4%	69.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	69.1%	29.6%	93.0%	43.4%	69.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	69.1%	29.6%	92.1%	43.4%	69.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	69.1%	29.6%	92.1%	43.4%	69.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	69.1%	29.6%	92.1%	43.4%	69.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	92.1%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	92.1%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	92.1%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	92.1%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	92.1%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	93.0%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	93.0%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	71.7%	29.6%	93.0%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	79.2%	29.6%	93.0%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	79.2%	29.6%	93.0%	39.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	79.2%	29.6%	93.0%	39.2%	60.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	79.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	76.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	60%	74.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	70.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗