KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

79%

60%

39%

30%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

EPSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.70u · EPS −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	41.6%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	67.6%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	0.3%	13.5%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	19.9%	67.7%	4.7%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	50.0%	46.4%	16.1%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	37.2%	56.1%	23.4%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	56.4%	66.3%	30.9%	56.4%	51.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	59.7%	—	—	39.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	79.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	76.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	60%	74.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	70.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗