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KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
73%
AIFS
65%
HRES
22%
EPS
20%
ICON
10%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 41.9¢Risks 41.90u
VS
ICONNO 58.1¢Risks 58.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.10u · ICON −58.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:0064.9%19.5%73.3%21.9%10.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:0064.9%19.5%73.3%21.9%10.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0064.9%19.5%73.3%21.9%10.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0064.9%19.5%73.3%21.9%10.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 273%76.9°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single65%75.7°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend55%74.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%68.5°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble20%69.8°F4.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON10%61.0°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗