KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

65%

22%

20%

10%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

ICONNO 58.1¢Risks 58.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.10u · ICON −58.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	35.8%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	61.6%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	0.2%	10.2%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	15.3%	61.1%	3.2%	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	42.7%	39.2%	12.0%	—	29.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	30.3%	48.5%	17.9%	—	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	48.4%	58.7%	24.2%	48.4%	43.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	51.6%	—	—	31.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	76.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	75.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	68.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	69.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	61.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗