KIND / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

96%

83%

82%

76%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 86.1¢Risks 43.03u

EPSNO 13.9¢Risks 6.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +6.97u · EPS −6.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	58.4%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	6.6%	55.4%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	51.4%	29.2%	9.6%	—	45.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	72.2%	63.6%	33.7%	70.9%	56.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	78.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	79.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	77.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	73.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	69.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗