KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

50%

47%

13%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.6¢Risks 37.55u

ICONNO 62.4¢Risks 62.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.45u · ICON −62.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:53+00:00	80.6%	69.1%	72.4%	15.2%	15.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	80.6%	69.1%	72.4%	15.2%	15.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	80.6%	69.1%	85.0%	15.2%	15.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	80.6%	69.1%	85.0%	15.2%	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	80.6%	69.1%	85.0%	15.2%	15.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	80.6%	69.1%	85.0%	15.2%	15.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	44.4%	69.1%	85.0%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	44.4%	69.1%	85.0%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	44.4%	69.1%	85.0%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	44.4%	69.1%	85.0%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	44.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	44.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	44.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	57.4%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	66.1%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	48.0%	68.8%	50.0%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	48.0%	68.8%	50.0%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	48.0%	68.8%	50.0%	23.7%	6.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:10+00:00	47.1%	68.8%	50.0%	12.6%	6.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	47.1%	68.4%	50.0%	12.6%	6.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	71.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4679
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3114
WeatherNext 2	50%	70.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2500
AIFS Single	47%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2218
National Blend	39%	69.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1529
IFS HRES	13%	65.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0159
ICON	7%	65.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0045

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗