KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

50%

47%

13%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.6¢Risks 37.55u

ICONNO 62.4¢Risks 62.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.45u · ICON −62.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	79.0%	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	96.8%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	66.4%	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	14.7%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	87.0%	34.9%	38.9%	—	86.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	95.8%	93.8%	94.9%	—	89.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	97.6%	73.0%	90.0%	—	88.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	95.5%	95.3%	88.1%	—	86.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	15.3%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	97.8%	96.4%	75.5%	—	82.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	93.6%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	96.6%	90.6%	9.0%	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	93.7%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	6.1%	80.4%	11.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	8.4%	86.3%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	12.6%	63.4%	11.1%	—	24.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	10.5%	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	12.8%	45.9%	25.9%	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	11.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	8.5%	13.7%	50.0%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	4.0%	16.1%	0.2%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	4.8%	9.0%	28.0%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	3.7%	11.4%	16.7%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	8.9%	9.5%	12.4%	24.6%	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	2.6%	8.7%	5.3%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	7.4%	17.3%	14.9%	26.2%	7.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	5.4%	8.6%	5.0%	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	4.4%	12.2%	7.3%	30.5%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	5.6%	4.8%	10.5%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	2.4%	11.0%	3.7%	40.6%	3.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	8.6%	1.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	71.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4679
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3114
WeatherNext 2	50%	70.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2500
AIFS Single	47%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2218
National Blend	39%	69.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1529
IFS HRES	13%	65.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0159
ICON	7%	65.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0045

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗