KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

96%

94%

91%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

HRESNO 5.0¢Risks 1.26u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.26u · HRES −1.26u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:47+00:00	73.5%	95.7%	85.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	73.5%	95.7%	85.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	73.5%	95.7%	85.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00	90.2%	95.7%	85.9%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	90.1%	95.7%	85.8%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00	90.1%	96.5%	85.8%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	90.1%	96.5%	85.8%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	90.1%	96.5%	85.8%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	90.1%	96.5%	82.4%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00	90.1%	96.5%	82.4%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	90.1%	96.5%	82.4%	92.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	82.4%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	82.4%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	82.4%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	82.4%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:11+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	82.4%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:10+00:00	95.9%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:16+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	91.8%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	94.0%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	94.0%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	96.6%	96.5%	94.0%	90.7%	81.7%
2026-10-12T07:47:57+00:00	97.2%	96.5%	94.0%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	97.2%	96.5%	94.0%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	97.2%	96.5%	94.0%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	97.2%	96.5%	94.0%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	97.2%	96.5%	94.0%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00	97.2%	96.5%	97.1%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	97.2%	98.9%	97.1%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	97.2%	98.9%	97.1%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	96.5%	98.9%	97.1%	91.0%	94.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	96.5%	98.9%	97.0%	91.0%	94.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	78.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9781
WeatherNext 2	97%	81.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9409
AIFS Single	96%	82.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.9312
ICON	94%	83.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.8836
IFS HRES	91%	81.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.8281
National Blend	65%	75.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.4173
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2852

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗