KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

96%

94%

91%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

HRESNO 5.0¢Risks 1.26u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.26u · HRES −1.26u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	78.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	69.2%	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	93.9%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	53.9%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	8.2%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	78.1%	23.0%	26.3%	—	77.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	91.3%	88.0%	89.7%	—	80.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	94.4%	59.1%	81.6%	—	78.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	90.3%	90.0%	78.2%	—	75.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	7.6%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	94.4%	91.6%	60.7%	—	69.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	86.3%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	91.7%	81.0%	3.8%	—	37.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	86.0%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	2.2%	65.3%	5.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	3.2%	73.2%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	5.1%	44.2%	4.4%	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	4.0%	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	4.9%	26.8%	12.3%	—	17.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	4.2%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.8%	5.0%	29.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.0%	6.0%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.2%	2.7%	12.1%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.9%	3.5%	5.8%	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	2.5%	2.6%	3.7%	9.5%	3.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.5%	2.2%	1.2%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	1.7%	5.3%	4.3%	9.5%	1.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.1%	2.0%	1.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.7%	2.9%	1.5%	10.8%	2.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.9%	0.8%	2.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	0.3%	2.2%	0.5%	15.2%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.4%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	78.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9781
WeatherNext 2	97%	81.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9409
AIFS Single	96%	82.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.9312
ICON	94%	83.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.8836
IFS HRES	91%	81.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.8281
National Blend	65%	75.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.4173
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2852

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗