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KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
HRES
90%
WN2
88%
AIFS
67%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 81.5¢Risks 81.55u
VS
AIFSNO 18.4¢Risks 18.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.45u · AIFS −18.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.3% · 2026-10-11T07:31:44+00:00AIFS Single: 67.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00AIFS Single: 67.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00AIFS Single: 67.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00AIFS Single: 67.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T07:31:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T07:31:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-11T10:33:39+00:00IFS HRES: 90.5% · 2026-10-11T07:31:44+00:00IFS HRES: 90.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00IFS HRES: 90.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00IFS HRES: 90.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS HRES: 90.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:39+00:0010-11 07:3110-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:31:44+00:0067.3%95.8%87.9%90.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:0067.3%95.8%87.9%90.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:0067.3%95.8%87.9%90.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:0067.3%95.8%87.9%90.5%
2026-10-11T10:33:39+00:0067.3%95.8%87.9%90.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%80.4°F4.0°F2026-10-10 00:000.9178
IFS HRES90%81.8°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.8190
WeatherNext 288%79.7°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.7726
AIFS Single67%76.0°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.4529
National Blend52%74.0°F8.8°F2026-10-11 00:000.2735

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗