KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

90%

88%

67%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.5¢Risks 81.55u

AIFSNO 18.4¢Risks 18.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.45u · AIFS −18.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	63.7%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	91.7%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	47.4%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	5.9%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	72.5%	18.0%	20.9%	—	72.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	88.0%	83.9%	86.1%	—	75.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	91.9%	51.5%	76.1%	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	86.4%	86.0%	71.9%	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	5.1%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	91.6%	88.0%	52.5%	—	61.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	81.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	87.8%	74.5%	2.3%	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	80.4%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	1.2%	56.4%	3.0%	—	10.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	1.8%	64.8%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	3.0%	34.8%	2.5%	—	7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	2.2%	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.8%	19.0%	7.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	2.3%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	2.8%	20.6%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	3.3%	0.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	1.3%	7.2%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.4%	1.7%	3.1%	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	1.2%	1.8%	5.2%	1.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.2%	1.0%	0.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.7%	2.6%	2.0%	5.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	1.2%	0.5%	5.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.3%	0.2%	0.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	7.7%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.9178
IFS HRES	90%	81.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.8190
WeatherNext 2	88%	79.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.7726
AIFS Single	67%	76.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4529
National Blend	52%	74.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2735

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗