KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

28%

13%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

ICONNO 75.3¢Risks 75.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.30u · ICON −75.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00	92.4%	93.8%	92.6%	85.0%	89.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	92.6%	85.0%	89.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	89.8%	85.0%	89.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	89.8%	85.0%	89.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	89.8%	85.0%	89.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	89.8%	85.0%	89.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.8%	76.8%	91.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.8%	76.8%	91.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.8%	76.8%	91.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	89.8%	76.8%	91.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	92.3%	76.8%	91.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	92.3%	76.8%	91.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	92.3%	76.8%	91.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	91.8%	93.3%	92.3%	76.8%	91.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	92.3%	76.8%	91.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	92.3%	76.8%	91.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	92.4%	93.3%	92.3%	76.8%	91.8%
2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00	34.8%	45.8%	22.6%	12.7%	3.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	34.8%	45.8%	22.6%	12.7%	3.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	34.8%	45.8%	37.4%	12.7%	3.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	34.8%	45.8%	37.4%	12.7%	3.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	34.8%	45.8%	37.4%	12.7%	3.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00	12.7%	45.8%	37.4%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	12.7%	45.8%	37.4%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	12.7%	45.8%	37.4%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	12.7%	45.8%	37.4%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	12.7%	45.8%	37.4%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	12.7%	45.8%	27.6%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	12.7%	12.5%	27.6%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	12.7%	12.5%	27.6%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	47.2%	12.7%	27.6%	2.7%	2.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	47.2%	12.7%	27.6%	2.7%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
AIFS Single	47%	74.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.2228
WeatherNext 2	28%	72.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0762
National Blend	22%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0467
IFS Ensemble	13%	71.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0161
IFS HRES	3%	65.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0007
ICON	2%	66.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0005

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗